Polling latest: 3 March 2015

3 March 2015

In this week's figures, YouGov continues to suggest that the 2015 General Election remains a close race, with both Labour and the Conservatives polling at 34 per cent. 

The Liberal Democrats had recovered slightly from their record low results while UKIP remained steady at 14 per cent. Green Leader Natalie Bennett’s disastrous interview last week appears not to have done her party any favours, however, with the Greens receiving one of their lowest results in the last few months at five per cent.

There was mixed news for Labour in the Populus poll, which has tended to give the party a majority. When weighted for those expressing an intention to vote, Labour’s lead was seen to have shrunk to two per cent.

Comres, meanwhile, suggested that the Conservatives were leading by two points over Labour, making this result one of the increasing number of polls suggesting a narrow Conservative margin.

There was bad news for UKIP in the week of their party conference, after a YouGov poll on membership of the European Union gave the “In” vote a record ten per cent lead.

On a less immediate timeframe, a speculative poll by YouGov predicting success at the 2035 election also cast some light on voter expectations of the parties and their futures. Fifty three per cent of those polled suggested that the Greens would get more votes than UKIP.

However, the poll also suggested that neither small party was expected to inflate towards a majority status, with people predicting that Labour and the Conservatives would remain the two largest parties.

Scepticism around immigration continues according to a poll by ComRes for ITV News. The firm suggested that 55 per cent of adults thought immigration had a negative impact on the NHS while 40 per cent suggested it had a negative impact on the economy.

In addition, the poll found that UKIP remained the party most trusted to tackle the issue of immigration with a substantial 17 per cent margin over the Conservatives.

However, the statistics also suggested that 44 per cent of people thought that immigration made no difference to their ability to find a job, while 51 per cent believed it did not affect them personally.

UKIP Leader Nigel Farage may also have had just cause for a pint after a Survation poll giving him an 11 point lead in his intended constituency of South Thanet.

All was not well for UKIP, however, after another ComRes poll suggested that significant minorities continued to see the party as nasty (37 per cent), racist (43 per cent) and unprofessional (43 per cent).

In addition, the Conservatives were more seen by 37 per cent as having a strong leader, while the same proportion thought of Labour as divided.

However, the poll also found that Labour had extended its lead as the party most trusted to manage the NHS to twelve per cent over the Conservatives. 

This came soon after a poll by Ipsos MORI suggested that 41 per cent of people saw the NHS as the key issue facing the UK, giving it a seven per cent lead over the next largest issue, immigration.

A Guardian polling projection provided mixed news for the Conservatives, suggesting that they would hold the most seats were an election to be held tomorrow. 

However, the Conservatives would be substantially short of a majority, and the narrow five-seat margin the party was predicted to hold could be negated by coalition agreements between the other parties.

Madhav Bakshi, Political Analyst
Madhav Bakshi
Political Analyst

Madhav Bakshi is a Political Analyst within DeHavilland’s Editorial Team and leads on Energy policy. He is a graduate of King’s College London, where he studied International Politics.